Mind reading

If you can read minds, you can get by with a lot more in life. I don't mean actual mind reading which to this day has only been mastered by RGS girls but I mean being able to predict people's reactions to certain situations much like Yagami Light.

Recent events in life have forced me to attempt this bizzare skill of telekinesis. For example, I frequently find myself trying to do so while playing texas hold 'em. I am always trying to guess what are the possible cards my opponent might have such that I may evaluate his bet. This does not really work out for I assume that everyone plays a lot and has a skill level which surpasses mine. This leads to a lot of standard assumptions which I am willing to break. In short, I find myself second-guessing alot, I am always assuming that if I think a certain way, I am positive that others will think similarly.

In another mind reading situation, I am currently applying for an international exchange to America. Most American universities in the program with SMU only offers one position with the exception for the University of Virginia. The said university offers 6 slots for SMU students wishing to go for exchange. In the application process, I have to choose up to 5 universities where the choices matter, just like in our PSLE choosing of secondary schools. Basically, if I choose Virginia as my first choice, the likelyhood of getting in is much higher compared to placing it in my second choice.

Now comes the PSLE dilema. Statistically, it would be wise to place Virginia as the first choice given the number of positions however I believe everyone will think along the same lines and choose Virginia too. Hence, I should put the other universities even though there is only one slot as I would stand a better chance if the above were to happen. At this point, I will begin to doubt myself and further consider what if everybody's train were to run along the same track and they pick the universities with one position? This would mean I ought to stick with Virginia!

I have recently concluded that reverse-reverse psychology as applied above does not work. People generally do not think and by thinking too far ahead you are just outsmarting yourself. By employing reverse-psychology, you probably will outsmart 80% of the world's population. This is definitely the statistics to go for and even if you encounter intelligent people who can see through your strategy, this only occurs 20% of the time.

This situation of outsmarting myself also happens frequently in poker. Such a situation occurred to me while I was watching a hand being played.

Andy: Unknown cards
Table: 4 9 A
John: 7 J

Andy and John are facing off in a hold 'em round where I can see John's cards but I cannot see Andy's hand. Andy betted $2 and John called.

Andy: Unknown cards
Table: 4 9 A 5
John: 7 J

After the card fell, Andy checked. Generally, if a person checks it would indicate that he has a weak hand and you should bet aggresively regardless of yoru cards. Yet I am always thinking what if he is just playing the part and trying to reel me in. This second guessing happens in part because I see it as what I might do if put in that position.

For this particular hand, the second-guessing would have lead me to check but John just threw in a $6 bet and Andy folded sebsequently. Conventional wisdom worked! For course this is a very simplistic view of looking at this hand and there could have been many other different variations. But that's the whole point, even though there are so many other variations, sometimes just being one step ahead is enough. There is no need to countercheck your initial trick regardless of how obvious and simple it may be.

I draw parallels of this situation with street magic tricks. Often it is ridiculously simple and blatent and yet it works every time. So when is it enough? Be a one trick pony and it should be enough to help achieve your aim. Being too complex is just not worthwhile unless you are competeing with a bunch of brainics if so then the gloves are off and all rules don't count.